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Dev.to
7/23/2026
Building a Burnout Early Warning System with Prophet and PyTorch Transformers Using HRV Data

Building a Burnout Early Warning System with Prophet and PyTorch Transformers Using HRV Data

Original: Stop Grinding, Start Predicting: Building a Burnout Early Warning System with Transformers and Prophet 🚀

Short summary

Combines Facebook Prophet and PyTorch Transformers to predict burnout from Oura Ring HRV data, shifting from reactive readiness scores to 24-hour-ahead fatigue forecasting. Prophet handles macro trends like weekly workout cycles while a multi-head attention Transformer captures subtle non-linear HRV drops signaling nervous system stress. Includes full code for Oura API data fetching, Prophet baseline forecasting, and a custom Transformer encoder for anomaly detection.

  • Hybrid model pairs Prophet (macro trends) with PyTorch Transformer (micro HRV anomalies) for burnout prediction
  • Uses Oura Ring HRV balance data as the primary autonomic nervous system stress signal
  • Provides complete code for data fetching, baseline forecasting, and Transformer-based sequence learning

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