Confidence is the one signal your model can't corroborate

Short summary

Model confidence shouldn't gate critical decisions because the model can't independently verify its own certainty. Using self-graded confidence as a gate creates a vulnerability where confident misclassifications pass undetected. Instead, gate on corroborated features like observed history or action properties, and use confidence only as a tiebreaker—a pattern applicable to any LLM-based decision system.

• •Model confidence alone is unsafe for decision gating because it lacks independent verification
• •Gate decisions on corroborated features like observed history or action properties instead
• •Use model confidence only as a tiebreaker, never as the authorizing signal for critical actions

Generated with AI, which can make mistakes.